Forecasting revolution

posted by
February 15, 2011
The Monkey Cage
by Jay Ulfelder  
Posted in Commentary

"In the past couple of weeks, I've been intrigued to see people who probably would not describe themselves as statistically inclined trying to draw lessons from Tunisia and Egypt by spotting patterns in tables or charts summarizing selected conditions in those countries before their revolutions. These exercises go something like this: 'Here's a list of factors that might have driven those events; there seems to be a pattern in those factors; and, based on that pattern, here's where unrest is likely to happen next.'" (02/14/11)  


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